Australia’s log export industry recorded modest growth during the first quarter of 2026, but the performance was driven almost entirely by rising demand from India. New trade figures indicate that India has strengthened its position as the dominant destination for Australian logs, while shipments to several other key Asian markets contracted significantly.
Analysis of international merchandise trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that India accounted for 72.9% of all Australian log exports during the quarter. The country increased its purchases by 42.6% compared with the same period a year earlier.
This expansion helped offset substantial declines across other export destinations. Without India’s stronger demand, Australia’s overall export performance would have been considerably weaker.
The Australian forestry sector shipped 463.8 thousand cubic metres of logs during the quarter. The total export value reached AU$78.8 million. Export volumes rose by 7.1% year-on-year.
India emerged as the key growth engine. More than 100 thousand cubic metres of additional logs were purchased by Indian buyers compared with the previous year.
Importantly, India was not only purchasing larger volumes. Higher prices were also being accepted. The average value paid by Indian importers reached AU$164 per cubic metre, representing an increase of 14.8%.
This combination of stronger demand and improved pricing provided crucial support to exporters. It also highlighted the growing importance of the India timber market to Australian suppliers.
Meanwhile, trade with China weakened considerably during the period.
Australian log shipments to China fell by 37.4% year-on-year to 111.3 thousand cubic metres. Export revenues from the market declined even more sharply. The value of shipments dropped by 60.8% to AU$19.7 million.
Average pricing also moved lower. Chinese buyers paid approximately AU$177 per cubic metre, a decline of 37.3% compared with the previous year.
The downturn marks a significant setback for exporters hoping for a stronger recovery in Chinese demand. Trade had shown signs of gradual improvement following the resumption of imports in 2023. However, first-quarter figures indicate that recovery momentum has weakened.
China now represents less than one-quarter of Australia’s total log export volume.
Vietnam also recorded a substantial decline.
Exports to the Southeast Asian market fell by 59.8% during the quarter. Shipment volumes reached only 5.71 thousand cubic metres. Export earnings totalled approximately AU$1.2 million.
Although percentage increases were reported in several other destinations, including the Philippines, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, volumes remained relatively small. Their contribution to overall export growth was limited.
As a result, India’s influence on the sector continued to expand.
Australian log exports are classified under Harmonised System heading 4403, covering wood in the rough. The category includes treated logs under HS 4403.1, coniferous softwood under HS 4403.2 and non-coniferous hardwood under HS 4403.9.
Softwood products continue to dominate export activity.
This trend has been reinforced over recent years. Earlier restrictions affecting access to the Chinese market encouraged producers to diversify into alternative Asian destinations. Many growers subsequently increased their focus on lower-value regional markets.
The latest figures suggest that this transition has created a new form of concentration risk.
A growing proportion of export volumes is now being directed to a single destination. Nearly three-quarters of all logs exported from Australia were shipped to India during the first quarter.
Such dependence is being closely watched by industry participants. Market diversification has long been viewed as an important strategy for reducing exposure to fluctuations in demand from individual countries.
The current structure leaves the sector increasingly vulnerable to changes in Indian purchasing patterns. Any future adjustment in import demand, pricing conditions or policy settings could have a significant impact on Australian exporters.
For now, India remains the cornerstone of Australia’s overseas log trade. Strong purchasing activity supported national export growth despite widespread weakness elsewhere in Asia.
The first-quarter results underline a clear reality for the Australian forestry sector. Export growth was achieved, but it was driven overwhelmingly by one market. As trade dynamics continue to evolve across the Asia-Pacific region, the industry’s reliance on India has reached its highest level since the collapse of the earlier China-centred trade model.
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