Friday, January 2, 2026
The European softwood sawn timber market is showing signs of modest recovery following a challenging few years. According to insights presented at the 73rd International Softwood Conference in Oslo in October 2025, the sector has gradually stabilised after facing three years of difficult market conditions. Although both producers and traders are reporting slight improvements, persistent challenges, such as record-high log prices, limited spruce availability, and subdued construction activity in key markets, continue to impact the market.
European sawmill production has plateaued at approximately 78 million cubic metres per year across member countries of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS). This marks a 10% decline from the peak production of 86 million cubic metres in 2021. Total production, when considering all EU countries, Norway, and Switzerland, reaches 97 million cubic metres.
Tommi Sneck, President of EOS, explained, “After peaking in 2021, production in EOS countries declined significantly to adjust to the demand drop. Since 2023, production has stabilised around 78 million cubic metres, which is still lower than pre-pandemic levels.” Germany, in particular, has seen the steepest production decline from 2021 peaks, while Finland shows signs of recovery, with production forecasted to increase to 11.7 million cubic metres by 2025. Austria, Sweden, Latvia, and Norway have mostly stabilised their output levels.
On the demand side, sawn softwood consumption across EOS member countries and the UK grew by 2.1% in 2024, reaching 42.8 million cubic metres. This remains 13% below 2021 consumption levels. The European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF) forecasts consumption will see gradual increases, reaching 43.5 million cubic metres in 2025 and 43.9 million cubic metres in 2026.
“For the third consecutive year, the first two quarters of 2025 offered hope in some European countries with increasing exports and European consumption – albeit from a relatively low basis,” said Sneck. “However, the summer was disappointing, and the outlook for the next few months remains less optimistic.”
The trend is similar in the import market. Total imports to major European markets reached 48.2 million cubic metres in 2024, a 5.4% increase compared to the previous year. ETTF Vice-President Morten Bergsten projects imports of 48.5 million cubic metres in 2025, with a slight decline to 46.1 million cubic metres in 2026, largely due to reduced US imports.
A key challenge for European sawmills is the sharp rise in raw material costs, particularly in Nordic countries where log prices have reached record highs. In Finland, for example, the spruce log price index has surged to approximately 160 (base 2015 = 100), while sawn spruce prices have only increased to around 150, resulting in a significant margin squeeze.
“Sawnwood prices have increased, but they have not kept up with the rise in log prices, which has contributed to low profitability,” Sneck remarked. “The increase in log prices occurred amidst weak demand, so the question is, what will happen when demand picks up again?”
The situation in Central Europe is slightly different, where prices have not risen as sharply but are still high compared to global competitors. A notable price gap has emerged between fresh logs and beetle-damaged logs in countries like Germany and the Czech Republic.
Spruce availability has become a structural constraint on European production. Germany’s spruce stocks are projected to decline dramatically from 1.2 billion cubic metres in 2012 to just 300 million cubic metres by 2100. The Czech State Forests harvest has stabilised at around 8 million cubic metres annually, down from over 14 million cubic metres in 2020 during the bark beetle crisis.
“Due to climate change, spruce is increasingly less suited to warmer climates, and its availability will continue to decline,” Sneck warned. “We’re already seeing the effects, with reduced availability of spruce logs after the bark beetle crisis.”
This scarcity is forcing mills in Central Europe and southern Sweden to increase their use of pine as an alternative. While pine and spruce often meet the same strength classification grades, they differ in appearance and treatment performance. Sneck suggested that the industry should promote pine as a structural timber more effectively.
The downturn in the construction sector that began in 2022 seems to have reached its lowest point. EU building permits for new dwellings fell by 15% in floor area in 2023, followed by another 2% decline in 2024. However, recent data show slight improvements, indicating that permits may have bottomed out.
“Confidence in the construction sector is still low, but the issuance of building permits for new houses in the EU has reached its lowest point and is showing slight improvement,” Sneck observed. “Yet, permits are still significantly lower than in 2021, especially in Central Europe.”
Germany, France, Finland, and Austria have been hit hardest, with Spain being a notable exception, experiencing expansion in construction activity.
EU exports of sawn softwood to non-EU markets totalled €6.5 billion in 2024, a 13% increase compared to 2024 projections. The US remains the largest destination outside Europe, accounting for over 16.5% of extra-EU exports, followed by Japan (9.4%) and Egypt (6.4%). However, China’s share has dramatically decreased to just 2.2%, with a 37% drop in deliveries in 2025.
Sneck reported, “In H1 2025, shipments to the US rose by 19% to €620 million, while shipments to Japan fell by 7% to €350 million. Deliveries to Egypt grew by 8%, while exports to China plummeted by 37%.”
Both presenters emphasised the need for supportive policy frameworks to enable the recovery of the industry. Sneck urged policymakers to recognise that European forests should not just be seen as “green museums” but as essential providers of wood.
The outlook for 2025-2026 reflects cautious optimism, with a 2.5% increase in consumption expected compared to 2024. While challenges persist, the industry is hopeful for gradual recovery, particularly with wood construction continuing to gain market share across Europe. However, questions remain regarding the recovery of the construction sector and whether reduced spruce availability will impact production.
In conclusion, while the European softwood sawn timber market is showing signs of recovery, significant challenges remain, particularly concerning raw material prices, spruce availability, and weak construction activity. The market is positioning for gradual improvement, with cautious optimism for 2026.
Read more news on Saw Mills
Get such updates through woodandpanel.us
Tags: European softwood timber market, sawmill industry, sawn timber, timber consumption, timber imports, wood construction, woodworking and manufacturing, woodworking industry
Comments: